Sample size and methodology
The Q2 2026 dataset comprises 480+ unique installer quotes for air source heat pump installations on private UK homes. Quotes are collected via two channels:
- Direct submission: homeowners share quotes received from MCS-certified installers, anonymised with explicit consent.
- Installer disclosure: some MCS-certified installers share aggregate pricing data quarterly under partnership agreements (no individual quote details).
Each quote is cross-checked against three reference points:
- Energy Saving Trust 2024 UK heat pump trial regional cost data (n=750 homes)
- Ofgem BUS scheme installation statistics (monthly aggregate)
- ONS Domestic Energy Bills Survey (regional energy expenditure)
This release covers quotes received between 1 January and 30 April 2026. Full methodology — including handling of solid-wall vs cavity-wall properties, detached vs semi-detached cost variation, and the application of the £7,500 grant deduction — is documented on our methodology page.
Regional cost ranges (Q2 2026)
| Region | Avg before grant | After £7,500 grant | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|
| London + South East | £11,800–£14,500 | £4,300–£7,000 | ~110 quotes |
| South West | £10,800–£13,200 | £3,300–£5,700 | ~50 quotes |
| East of England | £10,500–£12,800 | £3,000–£5,300 | ~45 quotes |
| Midlands | £10,300–£12,500 | £2,800–£5,000 | ~70 quotes |
| Yorkshire + North | £10,000–£12,500 | £2,500–£5,000 | ~80 quotes |
| North West | £10,300–£12,500 | £2,800–£5,000 | ~50 quotes |
| Wales | £10,400–£12,800 | £2,900–£5,300 | ~25 quotes |
| Scotland (urban) | £10,800–£13,800 | £3,300–£6,300* | ~30 quotes |
| Scotland (Highlands) | £11,800–£14,500 | £4,300–£7,000* | ~10 quotes |
| Northern Ireland | £11,800–£14,000 | £11,800–£14,000** | ~10 quotes |
* Scotland nets reflect Home Energy Scotland Cashback (up to £7,500), not the £7,500 BUS grant.
** Northern Ireland: no equivalent of BUS or HES; means-tested NI Sustainable Energy Programme available (£700–£1,500 typical).
Property-type cost variation
| Property | Avg before grant | After £7,500 BUS | Annual saving vs gas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detached 4-bed | £13,500–£16,000 | £6,000–£8,500 | £600–£800/yr |
| Semi-detached 3-bed | £10,800–£12,500 | £3,300–£5,000 | £250–£350/yr |
| Terraced 2–3 bed | £8,800–£11,500 | £1,300–£4,000 | £150–£300/yr |
| Flat (1–2 bed) | £8,000–£10,500 | £500–£3,000 | £100–£200/yr |
| Bungalow 3-bed | £10,500–£12,800 | £3,000–£5,300 | £250–£400/yr |
Trends vs Q1 2026
Compared to our Q1 2026 release:
- UK average installed cost: £11,200 (unchanged from Q1)
- Scotland regional premium: narrowing — closing in on UK average as Highland installer market grows
- South East premium: widening — driven by London labour rates and conservation-area planning costs
- Off-grid (oil/LPG) demand: up ~12% vs Q1 — driven by rising oil prices in early 2026
- Average install lead time: 5–9 weeks (slight improvement vs Q1's 6–10)
Limitations and notes
- Sample weights toward homeowners who actively compared multiple quotes — likely 5–15% lower than the broader UK market
- Northern Ireland sample (~10 quotes) is small; figures are indicative not statistically representative
- Highland Scotland sample (~10 quotes) similarly indicative
- Quotes include the £7,500 grant deduction in England/Wales pre-grant baseline; HES Cashback figures are calculated separately
- Costs exclude solar PV pairing, smart-thermostat upgrades, or mechanical ventilation retrofits
Press contact and citation
Journalists, researchers, and policy analysts may cite this release with attribution. Press contact: [email protected]. For a Word/CSV summary, please email a request — we typically respond within 48 hours with anonymised regional summary tables.
Suggested citation: ASHPCost Q2 2026 UK Heat Pump Cost Tracker, ashpcost.co.uk/q2-2026-uk-heat-pump-cost-tracker (accessed [date]).
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